The hottest natural rubber industry is facing diff

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The Tianjiao industry is facing difficulties, and the probability of Shanghai Jiao maintaining a range of shocks is high.

on the 17th, Shanghai Jiao rebounded strongly, with the trading volume expanding to more than 1.54 million hands, and the positions increased first and then decreased, indicating that many parties were bargain hunting and actively pursued, and triggered short speculative funds to take the initiative to make up, showing the strong characteristics of rising prices, increasing positions and decreasing positions on the disk. In view of the serious drought in Thailand, India, Yunnan and other major production areas of natural rubber, the profit growth of automobile enterprises may expand the demand for raw materials, and the supply-demand relationship of natural rubber market is expected to shift to more directions, so the space below Shanghai rubber is limited, and it is more likely to maintain range shocks

the domestic natural rubber industry is facing difficulties

due to the lack of necessary support, the infrastructure construction of the domestic natural rubber industry lags behind, the adjustment of species and tree age structure is slow, and the proportion of low yield rubber plantations is high. At present, China has more than 1.5 million mu of old rubber plantations with a tree age of more than 35 years, and about 2.1 million mu of low-yield rubber plantations with a yield of less than 60 kg per mu, which have not been updated and transformed in time. There are also more than 1.5 million mu of young rubber plantations. In the past, due to insufficient investment, it was necessary to deposit the film very thick first and prolong the non production period, so the limited resources have not been brought into full play. Domestic production areas often suffer from low temperature and drought in winter and spring. In addition, there are serious diseases and insect pests such as powdery mildew, anthrax, and scale insects, which have always been one of the most important industrial sectors in Britain, often causing huge losses to rubber growers. At present, the domestic natural rubber industry has not established an effective disaster prevention and mitigation mechanism, and the industrial development lacks the necessary guarantee. Therefore, the production of natural rubber faces many difficulties, and the stable and high yield faces many obstacles

the demand for raw materials of auto enterprises is expected to increase

the production and sales volume of the domestic auto industry in 2009 increased by 46% year-on-year, which is the best year for sales and profits in recent years. According to the economic benefit indicators of 17 key enterprise groups (the operating revenue accounts for about 50% of the whole industry) calculated by the automobile industry association, the operating revenue of the above-mentioned enterprise groups totaled 151.281 billion yuan last year, an increase of 30% year-on-year; The total profit was 117.28 billion yuan, an increase of 82% year-on-year. Although the capacity utilization rate is high, the profit will remain high. Such cumulative benefits will lead to a significant increase in the profit level this year compared with last year. Even if the demand slows down, the growth rate of industry profit in 2010 will still exceed 20%, which will significantly expand the demand and consumption of upstream natural rubber raw materials

tire enterprises set off a wave of product price increases

international tire giants have already started to raise prices on March 1, 2008, with an increase of 5% to 8%. Domestic tire enterprises have been on the sidelines and do not easily take the lead in raising prices to avoid losing their respective markets. However, as the prices of natural rubber, styrene butadiene, CIS butyl rubber, butyl rubber, carbon black and other major raw materials continue to rise, as well as the prices of coal, diesel and other energy sources continue to rise, domestic tire enterprises will have to jointly raise prices at the same time to protect their own interests. It is reported that most price increase plans have been determined after March 1 this year, with a minimum increase of 5%. After March, there will be a peak season for tire production, sales and consumption. Undoubtedly, the price rise of tires will play a strong supporting role in the upstream natural rubber raw materials

it is worth mentioning that in the face of the severe export situation under trade barriers, it is expected that the Ministry of industry and information technology will issue relevant documents such as the entry conditions of the tire industry and the industrial policies of the tire industry at the end of March or early April, so as to strengthen the export management and policy support of the tire industry, which is beneficial to the rubber price

to sum up, although the rubber market may also encounter the euro crisis, uncertain global economic prospects, anti-dumping of tire exports, heavy inventory pressure and other negative pressures, serious drought in domestic and low-temperature brittleness, heat resistance and wear resistance foreign production areas, profit growth of automobile enterprises and increased investment scale of tire dealers will promote the positive transformation between supply and demand of Tianjiao. Therefore, it is judged that the future decline space of Shanghai rubber will still be relatively limited, It is likely to maintain regional fluctuations in the medium term

note: this reprint indicates the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean that it agrees with its view or confirms the authenticity of its internal tariff collection that allows domestic manufacturers in the United States to take advantage of the trend to increase prices and profit margins

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